GUEST SHOT

An Essay

by Bruce Judson

The Next Publishing Revolution

IMAGINE THAT YOU HAD LIVED IN THE ERA when Gutenberg invented the printing press with movable type. The idea that books could be anything other than expensive, handcrafted works for a select few would have been unimaginable. Similarly, the idea that printed type (books and newspapers) would one day become an inexpensive, universal means of communication for all classes of people would undoubtedly have been treated as nonsense, even heresy.

I believe that we are at the threshold of a similar revolution. The growth of e-mail, the development of online bookstores, the emergence of first-generation electronic books, and the ability for individuals to distribute their words across the globe via the Web are all part of what is likely to be a fundamental revolution in how written information is created and distributed.

Everyone I know has a strong opinion about the future of books. Dedicated readers tell me that they could never imagine "curling up" with an electronic device. Similarly, many in the publishing industry believe that "the primary transformation" has already occurred with the rapid growth of online bookstores.

Nonetheless, it's my belief that far more fundamental change lies ahead. My perspective has been shaped by a personal involvement on many sides of the coin: I spent almost a decade working on various businesses at the magazine and publishing powerhouse Time Inc.; I was one of the co-founders of Time Warner's Pathfinder -- the first website from a major media company; I am a best selling author; and I am a dedicated reader who loves books.

I believe that within the next five years it will be commonplace to receive and read information through high-resolution, light-weight electronic devices. One of these devices will provide extraordinary convenience by allowing the owner to carry within it all of the books he or she is reading, all of the newspapers and magazines the owner subscribes to, and all of the memos and papers from work that he or she wants to access while away from the office.

Here's one scenario for how this transformation will occur:

(1.) It's my understanding that increased computing power can lead to higher resolution computer screens. New technologies that relate directly to the quality of print resolution on screens are also starting to become available. This means that at some point the resolution of flat panel screens for electronic devices will equal the resolution of today's books, newspapers and magazines.

(2.) Manufacturers of these "electronic books" will focus on the key ingredients that will ensure their success: creating great resolution, providing a slim, light-weight machine, and ensuring the availability of plenty of content. Today, the Rocket eBook, from NuvoMedia, is already a high-quality product in this arena.

(3.) Frequent travelers will start to realize that instead of carrying books, newspapers, magazines and memos from the office, they will instead be able to travel with a single device that incorporates all of these. In addition, daily newspapers, magazines, and books will all be available for sale on an advanced version of the World Wide Web. These sales may involve subscriptions to daily downloads (newspapers), subscriptions to weekly downloads (magazines), and one- time purchases (books).

(4.) The popularity of these devices will grow quickly as their costs decrease.

The changes I am describing are so massive that it's almost impossible to speculate how the information industries and related retailers will change. There is, however, one point I strongly believe. Our existing system of news publishers, book publishers, and retailers will not go away: they will evolve. This article is principally describing a new distribution mechanism for products that already exist -- and the consumption of this already existing information in a different form. Within this framework, daily reporters will still be required -- together with high quality editors -- to create newspapers. Similarly, books will still require editors, distributors (retailers) and other filters that both ensure the creation of quality products and recommend appropriate new products to prospective buyers.

Someone born in the late 1800s may have grown up using a horse and buggy but may have traveled on vacation toward the end of their life via a jet plane. With respect to the physical aspects of books, magazines, and newspapers, I would suggest that my five and eight year old daughters -- who both love books -- will experience changes of a similar magnitude.

[ Copyright © 1999 Bruce Judson. All rights reserved. ]

Bruce Judson is the author, with Kate Kelly, of the new book HyperWars: 11 Strategies for Survival and Profit in the Era of Online Business (Scribner, January 1999). He also is the editor and founder of GrowYourProfits.com, a newsletter that helps business people save money using the Web.

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